I downloaded the BM fuer Umwelt statistics report AGEE-Stat 2010, it gives energy data up to July 2010. I put that data in a spreadsheet and analysed a bit. I noted that:

-Wind energy for 2010 was 27204 MWe installed, and generated 37793 GWh.
hence capacity factor = 37793000 MWh / 27204 MW x 8760 h = 15.9%
Doing this for all the years 1990-2010 results in the average capacity factor for the whole period of 16.3%.

For Solar PV the average cap factor for the whole period 1990 – 2010 works out to 7.5%.

These do not compare well with nuclear and fossil electricity generation which generally have capacity factors of 90% (10% is needed for maintenance and other outages) .
It means that to equip the country with , say, 100 GW electricity capacity, it would require about 600 GW wind installation (in 2010 there was 27.20 GW). To provide this capacity with solarPV would require about 1300 GW solar PV (in 2010 there was 17.32 GW).

Of course Germany aims for a mix of wind and solar, and will include the better bio sources , but it still means that huge overcapacities will have to be provided.

The total wind energy delivered 1990-2010 is 311195 GWh, which is 2.58% of all electricity generated 12043000 GWh for that period. It represents 0.55% of all (elec + heat + fuel) energy used in Germany . If we just look at 2010 (instead of the whole period) then wind energy amounts to 6.22% of all electricity generated.

The total solar PV energy delivered 1990-2010 is 30580 GWh, which is 0.25% of the total electricity 12043000 GWh. It represents 0.054% of all (elec + heat + fuel) energy used in Germany for that period. If we just look at 2010 (instead of the whole period) then solar PV amounts to 1.92% of all electricity generated.

The Ruhr Universität states that total costs of solar PV in Germany since the development started, amounts to 130 billion Euro. This means that the total solarPV 30580 GWh have cost 130 billion/30580 000 000 = 4.25 Euro/kWh.

The various bio energies contribute to both elec and to heat energies used.

The cap factors for elec generation is medium high, namely 60-70% (except for those from landfill (deponie, 47.7%) and waste (Abfall, 34.8%) ). Their contributiion to the elec energy consumed is however insignificant, from 0.10 to 0.6% of all electricity used.

Would you please comment on these numbers :
- some of the numbers do not look good. Did I make errors in using the AGEE-Stat data provided by BM f Umwelt ?

- is Germany indeed aiming to install such overcapacity ?

- which were the outdated arguments that you had to listen to in Paris but which you had not heard for so many years ?

- you said Germany does not import electricity from France but actually exports renewable energy to France (and other countries maybe?) . Where can one find the statistics for this? Also at BM f Umwelt? Elsewhere? Plse advise.

- How is a cost of euro 4.25 per kWh of solar electricity justified ?

- Consumers are not charged Euro 4.25/kWh. Who paid the 130 billion euro?

- Europe has a beautiful grid system that streches from Norway to Turkey, so any country can sell to or buy from any other country. England does not have that facility, and my country South Africa also does not have neighbours that can sell .
What would you say is the policy to be adopted by countries that cannot exchange energy with neighbours?

- in terms of Euro/MW installed, wind power costs (data from OECD and IEA reports) approximately 3x as much as fossil or nuclear. The service life of wind power is about 20 years, compared to 60 years for fossil and nuclear stations. Cost of wind power is dropping, but is unlikely to become as low as fossil and nuclear. (mainly because the amount of concrete, steel , and electronic control systems per MW installed is higher for wind). So the higher cost of wind has to be spent thee times in 60years, and each time it is higher than the conventional installation cost. How can this be justified ? What is one getting in return that makes this worthwhile? If these estimates are not correct, where can I find better lifetime and cost estimates?

-How did Germany and France come through the recent cold snap? We read newspaper stories here that Germany imported at high cost from Czech, Slovakia, Austria. Was that true ? Which countries had enough energy to sell to others?

If you provide your email address, then I can forward my analysis to you.

PS. Sie gebrauchen die Abkürzung AKW. Was bedeutet dass? Mein deutsch fehlt mich hier !

Kind regards,
G F de Vries, Pretoria.

“Am heutigen Dienstag wird es eine weitere Vorführung der 4. Revolution in Paris geben, dann werde ich mich auf den Weg nach Berlin begeben, um im Rahmen der Berlinale diverse Gespräche zu führen. Ich freue mich darauf und werde mich wieder melden.”
http://www.fechnermedia.com/blog/?p=673

Herzliche Grüße, auch dir viel Glück, ob im Playboy oder im wahren Leben…
Carl